Mod\'elisations prospectives de l'occupation du sol. Le cas d'une montagne m\'editerran\'eenne

Abstract

The authors apply three methods of prospective modelling to high resolution georeferenced land cover data in a Mediterranean mountain area: GIS approach, non linear parametric model and neuronal network. Land cover prediction to the latest known date is used to validate the models. In the frame of spatial-temporal dynamics in open systems results are encouraging and comparable. Correct prediction scores are about 73 %. The results analysis focuses on geographic location, land cover categories and parametric distance to reality of the residues. Crossing the three models show the high degree of convergence and a relative similitude of the results obtained by the two statistic approaches compared to the GIS supervised model. Steps under work are the application of the models to other test areas and the identification of respective advantages to develop an integrated model.