Belief revision in quantum decision theory: gambler's and hot hand fallacies

Abstract

In the present article we introduce a quantum mechanism which is able to describe the creation of correlations in the evaluation of random independent events: such correlations, known as positive and negative recency, correspond respectively to the hot hand's and to the gambler's fallacies. Thus we propose a description of these effects in terms of qubits, which may become entangled, forming a system which can not be described completely only in terms of its constituents. We show that such formalism is able to describe and interpret the experimental results, thus providing a general and unifying framework for the cognitive heuristics.