PGA Tour Scores as a Gaussian Random Variable

Abstract

In this paper it is demonstrated that the scoring at each PGA Tour stroke play event can be reasonably modeled as a Gaussian random variable. All 46 stroke play events in the 2007 season are analyzed. The distributions of scores are favorably compared with a Gaussian distribution using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. This observation suggests performance tracking on the PGA tour should be done in terms of the z-score, calculated by subtracting the mean from the raw score and dividing by the standard deviation. This methodology measures performance relative to the field of competitors, independent of the venue, and in terms of a statistic that has quantitative meaning. Several examples of the use of this scoring methodology are provided, including a calculation of the probability that Tiger Woods will break Byron Nelson's record of eleven consecutive PGA Tour victories.