Predicting the cosmological constant with the scale-factor cutoff measure

Abstract

It is well known that anthropic selection from a landscape with a flat prior distribution of cosmological constant Lambda gives a reasonable fit to observation. However, a realistic model of the multiverse has a physical volume that diverges with time, and the predicted distribution of Lambda depends on how the spacetime volume is regulated. We study a simple model of the multiverse with probabilities regulated by a scale-factor cutoff, and calculate the resulting distribution, considering both positive and negative values of Lambda. The results are in good agreement with observation. In particular, the scale-factor cutoff strongly suppresses the probability for values of Lambda that are more than about ten times the observed value. We also discuss several qualitative features of the scale-factor cutoff, including aspects of the distributions of the curvature parameter Omega and the primordial density contrast Q.