The seismogenic area in the lithosphere considered as an "Open Physical System". Its implications on some seismological aspects. Part - I. Accelerated deformation

Abstract

The seismogenic area in the lithosphere is considered as an open physical system. The mathematical analysis of its inflow - outflow energy balance reveals the presence of specific energy flow physical models. The later comply with what has been observed by seismologists as "accelerated deformation" and "seismic quiescence". These physical models are represented by low-order cumulative seismic energy release analytical polynomial functions in time. The time derivatives of these functions, analytically calculated, provide a more sharp indication for the time of occurrence of a future large EQ. Examples from the application of this approach on real large EQs from the Greek territory are presented. Moreover, this methodology can be used for the determination of: the maximum expected magnitude of a future large EQ of a specific seismically activated seismogenic area and the compilation of seismic potential regional maps. The later will be presented in details in articles to follow soon.