The seismogenic area in the lithosphere considered as an "Open Physical System". Its implications on some seismological aspects. Part - III. Seismic Potential

Abstract

The seismic potential of any regional seismogenic area is analyzed in terms of the "open physical system" inflow - outflow energy balance model (Thanassoulas, 2008, Part - I). Following the magnitude determination method presented by Thanassoulas, (2008, Part - II) any region of any arbitrary area extent is assumed as being a potential seismogenic region. Consequently, the capability for the generation of a maximum magnitude future EQ at each virtual seismogenic region is investigated all over Greece at certain times. The later results are used to compile maps of the seismic potential / maximum expected EQ magnitude for Greece at 5 year's intervals ranging from 1970 to 2000. The comparison of these seismic potential maps / maximum expected EQ magnitude to the corresponding seismicity (M>6R) for each corresponding 5 years period reveals their tight interrelation. Therefore, the calculated seismic potential / maximum expected EQ magnitude, due to its drastic change in time in any seismogenic region, is a dynamic in time parameter which indicates the seismic energy charge status of each seismogenic area.