Bayesian inference of a negative quantity from positive measurement results

Abstract

In this paper the Bayesian analysis is applied to assign a probability density to the value of a quantity having a definite sign. This analysis is logically consistent with the results, positive or negative, of repeated measurements. Results are used to estimate the atom density shift in a caesium fountain clock. The comparison with the classical statistical analysis is also reported and the advantages of the Bayesian approach for the realization of the time unit are discussed.