Zeno at the Steering Wheel

Abstract

This paper collects some reflections about an apparent incongruity between the usual (third-person) understanding of the probability of an event calculated for an extended period of time in the future (e.g., the expected probability of a driver to meet with a car accident in the next $M$ years) and the subjective perception of the same probability/risk that the person involved in that event has, instant by instant during that period of time. Similarities with the classical Zeno's paradoxes come to mind.