Growth Model for Vote Distributions in Elections

Abstract

There are many factors that can influence the outcome of an election. We here identify two dominant effects that can affect the votes obtained by a candidate, namely, the Majority Effect and the Media Effect. We mimic these two effects in a simple growth model. We put the model on a two-dimensional square lattice and test it against the available data from elections in various countries. By adjusting the two parameters in the model, we are able to fit the vote distributions in all the countries studied.