Time-resolved extinction rates of stochastic populations

Abstract

Extinction of a long-lived isolated stochastic population can be described as an exponentially slow decay of quasi-stationary probability distribution of the population size. We address extinction of a population in a two-population system in the case when the population turnover -- renewal and removal -- is much slower than all other processes. In this case there is a time scale separation in the system which enables one to introduce a short-time quasi-stationary extinction rate W_1 and a long-time quasi-stationary extinction rate W_2, and develop a time-dependent theory of the transition between the two rates. It is shown that W_1 and W_2 coincide with the extinction rates when the population turnover is absent, and present but very slow, respectively. The exponentially large disparity between the two rates reflects fragility of the extinction rate in the population dynamics without turnover.