Mesure de l'incertitude tendancielle sur la mortalit\'e ? application \`a un r\'egime de rentes

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to propose a realistic and operational model to quantify the systematic risk of mortality included in an engagement of retirement. The model presented is built on the basis of model of Lee-Carter. The stochastic prospective tables thus built make it possible to project the evolution of the random mortality rates in the future and to quantify the systematic risk of mortality.