An Agent-Based Modeling for Pandemic Influenza in Egypt

Abstract

Pandemic influenza has great potential to cause large and rapid increases in deaths and serious illness. The objective of this paper is to develop an agent-based model to simulate the spread of pandemic influenza (novel H1N1) in Egypt. The proposed multi-agent model is based on the modeling of individuals' interactions in a space time context. The proposed model involves different types of parameters such as: social agent attributes, distribution of Egypt population, and patterns of agents' interactions. Analysis of modeling results leads to understanding the characteristics of the modeled pandemic, transmission patterns, and the conditions under which an outbreak might occur. In addition, the proposed model is used to measure the effectiveness of different control strategies to intervene the pandemic spread.