Observability of the total inflationary expansion

Abstract

I consider the question of possible observability of the total number of e-folds accumulated during the epoch of inflation. The total number of observable e-folds has been previously constrained by the de Sitter entropy after inflation, assuming that the null energy condition (NEC) holds. The NEC is violated by upward fluctuations of the local Hubble rate, which occur with high probability in the fluctuation-dominated regime of inflation. These fluctuations lead at late times to the formation of black holes and thus limit the observability of inflationary evolution. I compute the maximum number <Delta N> of e-folds that can be observed in principle through measurements of the CMB at arbitrarily late times (if the dark energy disappears). The calculation also provides a reasonably precise definition of the boundary of the fluctuation-dominated regime, with an uncertainty of a few percent. In simple models of single-field inflation compatible with current CMB observations, I find <Delta N> of order 10^5. This upper bound on the observable e-folds, although model-dependent, is much smaller than the de Sitter entropy after inflation. The method of calculation can be used in other models of single-field inflation.