On Parameter Estimation of Threshold Autoregressive Models

Abstract

This paper studies the threshold estimation of a TAR model when the underlying threshold parameter is a random variable. It is shown that the Bayesian estimator is consistent and its limit distribution is expressed in terms of a limit likelihood ratio. Furthermore, convergence of moments of the estimators is also established. The limit distribution can be computed via explicit simulations from which testing and inference for the threshold parameter can be conducted. The obtained results are illustrated with numerical simulations.