Exponential rarefaction of real curves with many components

Abstract

Given a positive real Hermitian holomorphic line bundle L over a smooth real projective manifold X, the space of real holomorphic sections of the bundle L^d inherits for every positive integer d a L^2 scalar product which induces a Gaussian measure. When X is a curve or a surface, we estimate the volume of the cone of real sections whose vanishing locus contains many real components. In particular, the volume of the cone of maximal real sections decreases exponentially as d grows to infinity.