Evaluating Financial Model Performance: An Empirical Analysis of Some North Sea Investments

Abstract

Fifty North Sea oil & gas investment transactions were analysed using traditional spreadsheet based financial modelling methods. The purpose of the analysis was to determine if there was a statistically significant relationship between the price paid for an oil & gas asset and the actual or expected financial return over the asset's economically useful life. Several interesting and statistically significant relationships were found which reveal useful information about financial modelling performance, the premia paid to acquire North Sea assets, the contribution oil and gas price uncertainty has on estimates of future financial returns and the median financial return of these North Sea Investments.