Modeling the evolution of continuously-observed networks: Communication in a Facebook-like community

Abstract

Building on existing stochastic actor-oriented models for panel data, we employ a conditional logistic framework to explore growth mechanisms for tie creation in continuously-observed networks. This framework models the likelihood of tie formation distinguishing it from hazard models that consider time to tie formation. It enables multiple growth mechanisms for network evolution (homophily, focus constraints, reinforcement, reciprocity, triadic closure, and popularity) to be modeled simultaneously. We apply this framework to communication within a Facebook-like community. The findings exemplify the inadequacy of descriptive measures that test single mechanisms independently. They also indicate how system design shapes behavior and network evolution.