Epidemic prediction and control in clustered populations

Abstract

There has been much recent interest in modelling epidemics on networks, particularly in the presence of substantial clustering. Here, we develop pairwise methods to answer questions that are often addressed using epidemic models, in particular: on the basis of potential observations early in an outbreak, what can be predicted about the epidemic outcomes and the levels of intervention necessary to control the epidemic? We find that while some results are independent of the level of clustering (early growth predicts the level of `leaky' vaccine needed for control and peak time, while the basic reproductive ratio predicts the random vaccination threshold) the relationship between other quantities is very sensitive to clustering.