How to Use Experimental Data to Compute the Probability of Your Theory

Abstract

This article is geared towards theorists interested in estimating parameters of their theoretical models, and computing their own limits using available experimental data and elementary Mathematica code. The examples given can be useful also to experimentalists who wish to learn how to use Bayesian methods. A thorough introduction precedes the practical part, to make clear the advantages and shortcomings of the method, and to prevent its abuse. The goal of this article is to help bridge the gap between theory and experiment.