An individual-based model of infection spread in an urban environment

Abstract

An individual-based model of the infectious disease spread among the urban population is considered. A system of stochastic equations, which describes changes in quantities of four population groups, susceptible, exposed, infected individuals and individuals in the state of remission, is built. The system of equations of the model is supplemented with correlations, which consider disease heaviness and duration for every infected individual. An algorithm and a modelling program based on Monte-Carlo methods which allows to investigate the group number dynamics is developed.