A Reanalysis of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures Using State-Space Techniques: The PDO In A New Light

Abstract

North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST), as used in estimating the PDO, are reanalyzed using state-space decomposition and subspace identification techniques. The reanalysis presents a very different picture of SST in this region. The first common trend reflects a global warming signal. The second common trend modifies this for areas that underwent a sharper warming (cooling) starting in the early 1970's. This trend is also related to dynamics in the tropics and in Arctic sea ice extent. The third common trend is a superposition of changes in pressure centers on the long-term global warming signal. The fourth common trend is the trend that is contained in the original PDO series if analyzed by state-space techniques, and is identical to the trend in the North Pacific High. The first two common stochastic cycles capture the original PDO and so-called "Victoria mode", showing that these series are dominated by stationary behavior..