Towards the perfect prediction of soccer matches

Abstract

We present a systematic approach to the prediction of soccer matches. First, we show that the information about chances for goals is by far more informative than about the actual results. Second, we present a multivariate regression approach and show how the prediction quality increases with increasing information content. This prediction quality can be explicitly expressed in terms of just two parameters. Third, by disentangling the systematic and random components of soccer matches we can identify the optimum level of predictability. These concepts are exemplified for the German Bundesliga.