A Survival Analysis of the Duration of Olympic Records

Abstract

We use recurrent-events survival analysis techniques and methods to analyze the duration of Olympic records. The Kaplan-Meier estimator is used to perform preliminary tests and recurrent event survivor function estimators proposed by Wang & Chang (1999) and Pena et al. (2001) are used to estimate survival curves. Extensions of the Cox Proportional Hazards model are employed as well as a discrete-time logistic model for repeated events to estimate models and quantify parameter significance. The logistic model was the best fit to the data according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). We discuss, in detail, covariate significance for this model and make predictions of how many records will be set at the 2012 Olympic Games in London. Keywords: survival analysis, recurrent events, Kaplan-Meier estimator, Cox proportional hazards model, Olympics.