On the age-, time- and migration dependent dynamics of diseases

Abstract

This paper generalizes a previously published differential equation that describes the relation between the age-specific incidence, remission, and mortality of a disease with its prevalence. The underlying model is a simple compartment model with three states (illness-death model). In contrast to the former work, migration- and calendar time-effects are included. As an application of the theoretical findings, a hypothetical example of an irreversible disease is treated.