Finite sample forecasting with estimated temporally aggregated linear processes

Abstract

We propose a finite sample based predictor for estimated linear one dimensional time series models and compute the associated total forecasting error. The expression for the error that we present takes into account the estimation error. Unlike existing solutions in the literature, our formulas require neither assumptions on the second order stationarity of the sample nor Monte Carlo simulations for their evaluation. This result is used to prove the pertinence of a new hybrid scheme that we put forward for the forecast of linear temporal aggregates. This novel strategy consists of carrying out the parameter estimation based on disaggregated data and the prediction based on the corresponding aggregated model and data. We show that in some instances this scheme has a better performance than the "all-disaggregated" approach presented as optimal in the literature.