Modeling Weather Conditions Consequences on Road Trafficking Behaviors

Abstract

We provide a model to understand how adverse weather conditions modify traffic flow dynamic. We first prove that the microscopic Free Flow Speed of the vehicles is changed and then provide a rule to model this change. For this, we consider a thresholded linear model, corresponding to an application of a MARS model to road trafficking. This model adapts itself locally to the whole road network and provides accurate unbiased forecasted speed using live or short term forecasted weather data information.