The fate of the square root law for correlated voting

Abstract

We consider two-tier voting system and try to determine optimal weights for a fair representation in such systems. A prominent example of such a voting system is the Council of Ministers of the European Union. Under the assumption of independence of the voters, the square root law gives a fair distribution of power (based on the Penrose-Banzhaf power index) and a fair distribution of weights (based on the concept of the majority deficit), both given in the book by Felsenthal and Machover. In this paper, special emphasis is given to the case of correlated voters. The cooperative behaviour of the voters is modeled by suitable adoptions of spin systems known from statistical physics. Under certain assumptions we are able to compute the optimal weights as well as the average deviation of the council's vote from the public vote which we call the democracy deficit.