A Modification to Evidential Probability

Abstract

Selecting the right reference class and the right interval when faced with conflicting candidates and no possibility of establishing subset style dominance has been a problem for Kyburg's Evidential Probability system. Various methods have been proposed by Loui and Kyburg to solve this problem in a way that is both intuitively appealing and justifiable within Kyburg's framework. The scheme proposed in this paper leads to stronger statistical assertions without sacrificing too much of the intuitive appeal of Kyburg's latest proposal.