Impact of commuting on disease persistence in heterogeneous metapopulations

Abstract

We use a stochastic metapopulation model to study the combined effects of seasonality and spatial heterogeneity on disease persistence. We find a pronounced effect of enhanced persistence associated with strong heterogeneity, intermediate coupling strength and moderate seasonal forcing. Analytic calculations show that this effect is not related with the phase lag between epidemic bursts in different patches, but rather with the linear stability properties of the attractor that describes the steady state of the system in the large population limit.