Combining Uncertain Estimates

Abstract

In a real expert system, one may have unreliable, unconfident, conflicting estimates of the value for a particular parameter. It is important for decision making that the information present in this aggregate somehow find its way into use. We cast the problem of representing and combining uncertain estimates as selection of two kinds of functions, one to determine an estimate, the other its uncertainty. The paper includes a long list of properties that such functions should satisfy, and it presents one method that satisfies them.