Faster is More Different: Mean-Field Dynamics of Innovation Diffusion

Abstract

Based on a recent model of paradigm shifts by Bornholdt et al., we studied mean-field opinion dynamics in an infinite population where an infinite number of ideas compete simultaneously with their values publicly known. We found that a highly innovative society is not characterized by heavy concentration in highly valued ideas: Rather, ideas are more broadly distributed in a more innovative society with faster progress, provided that the rate of adoption is constant, which suggests a positive correlation between innovation and technological disparity. Furthermore, the distribution is generally skewed in such a way that the fraction of innovators is substantially smaller than has been believed in conventional innovation-diffusion theory based on normality. Thus, the typical adoption pattern is predicted to be asymmetric with slow saturation in the ideal situation, which is compared with empirical data sets.