Modeling the polycentric transition of cities

Abstract

Empirical evidence suggest that most urban systems experience a transition from a monocentric to a polycentric organisation as they grow and expand. We propose here a stochastic, out-of-equilibrium model of the city which explains the appearance of subcenters as an effect of traffic congestion. We show that congestion triggers the unstability of the monocentric regime, and that the number of subcenters and the total commuting distance within a city scale sublinearly with its population, predictions which are in agreement with data gathered for around 9000 US cities between 1994 and 2010.