Earthquake forecasting: Statistics and Information

Abstract

We present an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of multi-component random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and confidence intervals for conditional probabilities of strong earthquakes under conditions on the levels of precursors. Also, it provides an approach for setting multilevel alarm system and hypothesis testing for binary alarms. We use a method of comparison for different earthquake forecasts in terms of the increase of Shannon information. 'Forecasting' and 'prediction' of earthquakes are equivalent in this approach.