Pre-perihelion photometric behavior of comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) and its future prospect

Abstract

Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) shows strange photometric behavior compared to many past comets. Shortly after its discovery, majority of astronomers expected its surviving until perihelion passage. Unprecedented evolution of its photometric parameters nearly 2 AU from Sun, pushed this comet under survival line defined by formula of John. E. Bortle, where ~70% comets in his analysis disintegrated. However comparison with photometric behavior of group of past disintegrated comets showing large differences and ISON doesn't seems to be typical member of this group. In other hand, compared to surviving, dynamically new comets which were observed far away from Sun and survived its perihelion passage, ISON showing peculiar gradual decrease of its activity, probably caused by exhaustion of active fractions of its nucleus.