On the Bayesian approach to neutrino mass ordering

Abstract

We study the framework of Bayesian statistics for analyzing the capabilities and results of future experiments looking to solve the issue of the neutrino mass ordering. Starting from the general scenario, we then give examples of the procedure for experiments with Gaussian and non-Gaussian distributions for the indicator. We describe in detail what can and cannot be said about the neutrino mass ordering and a future experiment's capabilities to determine it. Finally, we briefly comment on the application to other binary measurements, such as the determination of the octant of $\theta_{23}$.