The average number of elements in the 4-Selmer groups of elliptic curves is 7

Abstract

We prove that when all elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ are ordered by height, the average size of their 4-Selmer groups is equal to 7. As a consequence, we show that a positive proportion (in fact, at least one fifth) of all 2-Selmer elements of elliptic curves, when ordered by height, do not lift to 4-Selmer elements, and thus correspond to nontrivial 2-torsion elements in the associated Tate--Shafarevich groups.