Event Conditional Correlation: Or How Non-Linear Linear Dependence Can Be

Abstract

Entries of datasets are often collected only if an event occurred: taking a survey, enrolling in an experiment and so forth. However, such partial samples bias classical correlation estimators. Here we show how to correct for such sampling effects through two complementary estimators of event conditional correlation: the correlation of two random variables conditional on a given event. First, we provide under minimal assumptions proof of consistency and asymptotic normality for the proposed estimators. Then, through synthetic examples, we show that these estimators behave well in small-sample and yield powerful methodologies for non-linear regression as well as dependence testing. Finally, by using the two estimators in tandem, we explore counterfactual dependence regimes in a financial dataset. By so doing we show that the contagion which took place during the 2007--2011 financial crisis cannot be explained solely by increased financial risk.