Predicting the Next Maxima Incidents of the Seasonally Forced SEIR Epidemic Model

Abstract

This paper aims at predicting the next maxima values of the state variables of the seasonal SEIR epidemic model and their in-between time intervals. Lorenz's method of analogues is applied on the attractor formed by the maxima of the corresponding state variables. It is found that both quantities are characterized by a high degree of predictability in the case of the chaotic regime of the parameter space.