A positive proportion of plane cubics fail the Hasse principle

Abstract

When all ternary cubic forms over $\mathbb Z$ are ordered by the heights of their coefficients, we show that a positive proportion of them fail the Hasse principle, i.e., they have a zero over every completion of $\mathbb Q$ but no zero over $\mathbb Q$. We also show that a positive proportion of all ternary cubic forms over $\mathbb Z$ nontrivially satisfy the Hasse principle, i.e., they possess a zero over every completion of $\mathbb Q$ and also possess a zero over $\mathbb Q$. Analogous results are proven for other genus one models, namely, for equations of the form $z^2=f(x,y)$ where $f$ is a binary quartic form over $\mathbb Z$, and for intersections of pairs of quadrics in $\mathbb P^3$.