The influence of persuasion in opinion formation and polarization

Abstract

We present a model that explores the influence of persuasion in a population of agents with positive and negative opinion orientations. The opinion of each agent is represented by an integer number $k$ that expresses its level of agreement on a given issue, from totally against $k=-M$ to totally in favor $k=M$. Same-orientation agents persuade each other with probability $p$, becoming more extreme, while opposite-orientation agents become more moderate as they reach a compromise with probability $q$. The population initially evolves to (a) a polarized state for $r=p/q>1$, where opinions' distribution is peaked at the extreme values $k=\pm M$, or (b) a centralized state for $r<1$, with most opinions around $k=\pm 1$. When $r \gg 1$, polarization lasts for a time that diverges as $r^M \ln N$, where $N$ is the population's size. Finally, an extremist consensus ($k=M$ or $-M$) is reached in a time that scales as $r^{-1}$ for $r \ll 1$.