Principal wind turbines for a conditional portfolio approach to wind farms

Abstract

We introduce a measure for estimating the best risk-return relation of power production in wind farms within a given time-lag, conditioned to the velocity field. The velocity field is represented by a scalar that weighs the influence of the velocity at each wind turbine at present and previous time-steps for the present "state" of the wind field. The scalar measure introduced is a linear combination of the few turbines, that most influence the overall power production. This quantity is then used as the condition for computing a conditional expected return and corresponding risk associated to the future total power output.