Distribution System Load and Forecast Model
Abstract
This short document provides experimental evidence for the set of assumptions on the mean load and forecast errors made in Sevlian2014AOutage and Sevlian2014BOutage. We show that the mean load at any given node is distributed normally, where we compute the mean and variance. We then present an aggregation-error curve for a single day ahead forecaster. Residual analysis shows that beyond 500 customers, gaussian residuals is a reasonable model. We then show the forecaster has uncorrelated errors.
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