Bayes linear kinematics in a dynamic Bayesian survival model

Abstract

Bayes linear kinematics and Bayes linear Bayes graphical models provide an extension of Bayes linear methods so that full conditional updates may be combined with Bayes linear belief adjustment. In this paper we investigate the application of this approach to a more complicated problem: namely survival analysis with time-dependent covariate effects. We use a piecewise-constant hazard function with a prior in which covariate effects are correlated over time. The need for computationally intensive methods is avoided and the relatively simple structure facilitates interpretation. Our approach eliminates the problem of non-commutativity which was observed in earlier work by Gamerman. We apply the technique to data on survival times for leukemia patients.