Mathematical model for hit phenomena and its application to analyze popularity of weekly tv drama

Abstract

Mathematical model for hit phenomena presented by A Ishii et al in 2012 has been extended to analyze and predict a lot of hit subject using social network system. The equation for each individual consumers is assumed and the equation of social response to each hit subject is derived as stochastic process of statistical physics. The advertisement effect is included as external force and the communication effects are included as two-body and three-body interaction. The applications of this model are demonstrated for analyzing population of weekly TV drama. Including both the realtime view data and the playback view data, we found that the indirect communication correlate strongly to the TV viewing rate data for recent Japanese 20 TV drama.