Evolution of the 2012 July 12 CME from the Sun to the Earth: Data-Constrained Three-Dimensional MHD Simulations

Abstract

The dynamic process of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the heliosphere provides us the key information for evaluating CMEs' geo-effectiveness and improving the accurate prediction of CME induced Shock Arrival Time (SAT) at the Earth. We present a data constrained three dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the evolution of the CME in a realistic ambient solar wind for the July 12-16, 2012 event by using the 3D COIN-TVD MHD code. A detailed comparison of the kinematic evolution of the CME between the observations and the simulation is carried out, including the usage of the time-elongation maps from the perspectives of both Stereo A and Stereo B. In this case study, we find that our 3D COIN-TVD MHD model, with the magnetized plasma blob as the driver, is able to re-produce relatively well the real 3D nature of the CME in morphology and their evolution from the Sun to Earth. The simulation also provides a relatively satisfactory comparison with the in-situ plasma data from the Wind spacecraft.