Prudence in estimating coherence between planetary, solar and climate oscillations

Abstract

There are claims that there is correlation between the speed of center of mass of the solar system and the global temperature anomaly. This is partly grounded in data analysis and partly in a priori expectations. The magnitude squared coherence function is the proper measure for testing such claims. It is not hard to produce high coherence estimates at periods around 15--22 and 50--60 years between these data sets. This is done in two independent ways, by wavelets and by a periodogram method. But does a coherence of high value mean that there is coherence of high significance? In order to investigate that, four different measures for significance are studied. Due to the periodic nature of the data, only Monte Carlo simulation based on a non-parametric random phase method is appropriate. None of the high values of coherence then turn out to be significant. Coupled with a lack of a physical mechanism that can connect these phenomena, the planetary hypothesis is therefore dismissed.