State estimation for temporal point processes

Abstract

This paper is concerned with combined inference for point processes on the real line observed in a broken interval. For such processes, the classic history-based approach cannot be used. Instead, we adapt tools from sequential spatial point processes. For a range of models, the marginal and conditional distributions are derived. We discuss likelihood based inference as well as parameter estimation using the method of moments, conduct a simulation study for the important special case of renewal processes and analyse a data set collected by Diggle and Hawtin.