Proper Scoring and Sufficiency

Abstract

Logarithmic score and information divergence appear in both information theory, statistics, statistical mechanics, and portfolio theory. We demonstrate that all these topics involve some kind of optimization that leads directly to the use of Bregman divergences. If a sufficiency condition is also fulfilled the Bregman divergence must be proportional to information divergence. The sufficiency condition has quite different consequences in the different areas of application, and often it is not fulfilled. Therefore the sufficiency condition can be used to explain when results from one area can be transferred directly from one area to another and when one will experience differences.