A Stopped Negative Binomial Distribution

Abstract

This paper introduces a new discrete distribution suggested by curtailed sampling rules common in early-stage clinical trials. We derive the distribution of the smallest number of independent Bernoulli(p) trials needed in order to observe either s successes or t failures. The closed form expression for the distribution as well as the compound distribution are derived. Properties of the distribution are shown and discussed. A case study is presented showing how the distribution can be used to monitor sequential enrollment of clinical trials with binary outcomes as well as providing post-hoc analysis of completed trials.