A glass half full interpretation of the replicability of psychological science

Abstract

A recent study of the replicability of key psychological findings is a major contribution toward understanding the human side of the scientific process. Despite the careful and nuanced analysis reported in the paper, mass and social media adhered to the simple narrative that only 36% of the studies replicated their original results. Here we show that 77% of the replication effect sizes reported were within a prediction interval based on the original effect size. In this light, the results of Reproducibility Project: Psychology can be viewed as a positive result for the scientific process.